Are We Do for a Great Depresion Again
Leading Economists Predict a Grim Future…and Identify Who the Winners and Losers Will Be
Authors and economists Brian and Alan Beaulieu insist that current regime spending patterns, in light of our nation's demographic trends, are unsustainable. Their new book explains why—and identifies the winners and losers of the coming economic ending.
Hoboken, NJ (July 2014)—Economical turbulence is the new normal. And if the ups and downs have you lot wondering what the time to come holds, Brian and Alan Beaulieu say information technology's a proficient news/bad news/proficient news story.
The adept news: Economists predict that during the next iii years—2015, 2016, 2017—nosotros'll see solid economic growth.
The bad news: That growth won't concluding. In fact, if serious changes aren't fabricated, the U.S. economic system could plunge into another Great Depression during the 2030s.
The other proficient news: You, personally, don't have to go downwards with the ship. If you make the correct financial moves now, you can safeguard your own family'southward well-being.
"Let'southward focus first on that bombshell in the heart," says Brian Beaulieu, who along with Alan Beaulieu wrote Prosperity in the Historic period of Decline: How to Lead Your Business and Preserve Wealth Through the Coming Concern Cycles (Wiley, 2014, ISBN: 978-1-118-80989-i, $30.00). "For various reasons, chief among them the aging population and the entitlement programs tied to aging, our current system is not viable. We will go broke and experience the Great Depression of the 2030s unless something changes."
In Prosperity in the Age of Decline, Brian Beaulieu, the CEO of the Plant for Trend Research (ITR®) Economic science, and Alan Beaulieu, the president of ITR, offer an informed, meticulously researched expect at the futurity and the coming Great Depression. In this important resource, the authors reveal what information technology will take for individual investors and concern leaders to prosper as the economic system heats up prior to the predicted downturn, preserve wealth in the upcoming Great Low, and profit on the style out of the depression.
Sobering stuff, indeed. Only to return for a moment to the second "good news" bookend, "The U.S. economy is huge, and there is an astonishing amount of maneuvering room on a microeconomic level," notes Alan Beaulieu. "While it may exist extremely difficult or impossible to modify some of the demographic and entitlement spending trends as nosotros head toward 2030, it is very possible for united states of america as individuals to take action to safeguard our family's financial well-being."
Read on as the Beaulieus explain who will be the winners and who will be the losers in the coming Great Depression.
The Winners
- People who relieve or contribute to their 401(1000)s. People of every demographic who create an effective combination of saving and investing volition be improve prepared for the coming Nifty Depression than those who don't. The savers/investors will be able to augment government retirement and medical program costs to maintain a reasonable standard of living.
"It is our hope that this book volition engender an urgent need to practice and so too as provide a how-to guide to relieve and invest efficaciously," says B. Beaulieu. "Saving alone won't do the fob because inflation will consume into the value of the dollar ($1 in 2030 will buy a lot less than $1 tin buy in 2014)." - Businesses that focus on countries or regions with comparatively young populations. Whether a business organisation focuses only on the next twelvemonth or the next x years, expending capital and energy in China may make sense. Yet, if a firm is looking further down the road for the better growth percentages, information technology will have to turn to where there is an expanding eye form, non a shrinking middle class.
"Those countries with inverted people pyramids are not the ones where middle-grade expansion will organically occur," notes A. Beaulieu. - Firms that are gearing efforts toward the Latino and Hispanic segment of the population. The Hispanic community in 2005 constituted fourteen percent of the U.South. population; whites constituted 67 percent. By 2030 Hispanics volition business relationship for 29 percent of the total population, and whites will be at 47 percent.
"There is a tremendous surge of Hispanic culture, language, and needs coming our style that successful businesses will pay attention to if they desire to gain marketplace share and bask relative prosperity, even during the coming Great Low," says B. Beaulieu. "African Americans will be relatively constant at 13 per centum of the population (same as 2005), and the Asian population will grow to 9 per centum of the total from v pct in 2005." - Firms that develop niche products and services dealing with the elderly. (Go on in mind this piece of the pie will stop growing in the 2030-2040 decade.) Be it independent living facilities, skilled nursing homes, special dietary needs, personal care requirements, travel needs, entertainment, or whatever y'all can think of (the list goes on and on), catering to the needs of those 65 and older will exist a growth industry between now and 2030.
"In the Us, the market will cease to abound as a percent of the whole population afterwards 2030, and so await pricing to go more competitive and the field to become more than crowded beginning in the Smashing Depression of the 2030s," explains A. Beaulieu. "Turning to older populations outside the United States will also prove to be a winning strategy."
The Losers
- Generation Y (built-in 1981–2000). Our concern for generation Y regarding the 2030s low is twofold. One, information technology is going to have to care for a disproportionately large elderly population. This is both plush (financially and emotionally) and time-consuming. 2, it volition be entering its elevation earning years around the fourth dimension the U.s. and the rest of the globe is slipping into what looks to be a decade-long low. Unless they are especially prepared (another reason for this book), they volition become the economically lost generation.
"I remedy for the coming financial troubles is for the retirement age to exist increased," notes B. Beaulieu. "We are good for you enough to work longer, and nosotros may demand to because most Americans are non ?nancially prepared for retirement. If people are ?nancially encouraged to piece of work longer, they are less dependent upon the economy, and the government is in a position where it does non need to support them. The economical solution seems articulate, merely no doubt information technology will be extremely difficult to achieve politically. That's because the elderly vote in such high numbers. - "Ane of the ways that the younger generations can save themselves is to increase their voter participation," he adds. "The elderly vote in college numbers as a group than the 20- to 39-twelvemonth-olds practice. Politicians want to be reelected. The younger voters are going to demand to give politicians a reason to brand the logical economic choice of raising the retirement age plenty to avert the ?nancial stress that'south going to fall on their shoulders."
- People 65 and older who haven't created a nest egg. There is a coming stress point where retirement and medical benefits will be reduced, be delayed, or cost more. Whatever way you lot await at it, people who are relying on the system to provide for them in their elder years are likely to experience a pregnant drop in their standard of living. That will exist especially true for people who will be reaching retirement age during the 2030s. If they haven't put away a sufficient nest egg, then they will find themselves in fiscal trouble. In that location simply won't exist a social condom net to proceed them adrift.
"The adept news is it seems people are putting more money into their nest eggs," says A. Beaulieu. "The median income for people aged 65 and older in 2011 was $xix,939. That doesn't seem like much simply information technology is really upwards ten.9 percent from x years earlier (adapted for inflation.) So it does seem that people are getting the message about needing to take care of themselves and not relying on Social Security. And we remember this trend toward college in?ation-adjusted incomes provides maneuvering room for altering bene?ts in the future. Just for at present, people in full general depend on Social Security." - Incumbent politicians. The political choices that face up us between now and 2030 are going to range from painful to dangerous. In the end, doing the economically right thing is not likely to win votes for reelection. "Additionally, anyone in office as we head into a Great Depression is going to have a difficult fourth dimension justifying why they should exist reelected," says B. Beaulieu. "Politics as a career betwixt 2025–2034 is something generation Y should avert if they are going to try to earn a consequent wage during the depression."
- Taxpayers. Reduce benefits or raise taxes will be the primary choices confronting politicians. The path of least resistance volition be to increment taxes on the rich. "That is an interesting concept considering politicians volition get to decide who the rich are," notes A. Beaulieu. "Most probable they will construe the rich as those with higher incomes or with substantial assets. The rich today pay near of the taxes the government receives. Get ready to pony upward fifty-fifty more coin in the future."
The U.S. economy is huge, and there is an amazing amount of maneuvering room on a microeconomic level
"There are turbulent years alee, but if we tin weather condition them, there will be calmer waters on the other side," says B. Beaulieu. "Looking past the Groovy Depression of the 2030s, the U.South. will be in a relatively good position. Our dependency ratio will take leveled off, and our younger population volition be growing. That said, information technology is important for individuals to take steps now to prepare themselves up for the coming hard times they may endure during the depression."
Your Not bad Depression Activity Plan: Vi Things to Practice Right Now to Prepare for the Collapse of 2030
The thought that a second "Great Depression" is heading our mode in xv years or so is more than a piffling scary. But the remedy for fear is action. And since you know economic trouble is coming, you can outset taking steps now to fix for information technology. Follow the tips below from authors Brian and Alan Beaulieu and you can non only survive simply thrive during the coming Great Depression:
Live below your means and invest in your future
Nearly everyone should salve some coin from each paycheck and use these savings to invest in equities as the 2020s should provide a ameliorate-than-in?ation render on investment. "The goal," says Brian Beaulieu, "is to maximize the nest egg so that people who are poised to retire or who lose their jobs won't exist destitute and depend on a government that has lost the wherewithal to provide generous entitlements."
Create multiple income streams
Every household, even if yours is just a household of one, should have multiple income streams. This fashion, when ane source of cash comes under pressure or fails, the other will be there to help maintain the household. Dividends and rental property make excellent sources of boosted income that can be saved for future use.
Don't piece of work in the same industry as other members of your household
Two wage earners in the same household should exist careful that they are non working for the same company or even within the same industry. For instance, having both earners in the machinery export business all but guarantees both incomes will be negatively afflicted at the same fourth dimension during a down cycle. Two teachers in the aforementioned school organization might face simultaneous cutbacks and layoffs.
"Households need to diversify when possible," explains Alan Beaulieu. "For case, ane in business and the other in constabulary enforcement, in the ?re department, in the medical ?eld, in the insurance industry, in teaching, or in caring for senior citizens. Two incomes in business or in the same ?eld will dramatically increase the gamble of ?nancial troubles."
Establish an income that's connected to one of the Nifty Low drivers: demographics or information
A subject area and career in the pursuit of making life improve, healthier, longer, or with an improved lifestyle will exist great business with the world's population growing by a billion people betwixt now and the middle of this century. Also in this category of demographic opportunity is the ?eld of entertainment. Equally the middle grade on planet Earth expands, leisure time in search of entertainment is probable to be a burgeoning and potentially lucrative ?eld.
"In the information arena, natural resources warrant a primary focus for students and professionals," says B. Beaulieu. "Harvesting and conserving natural resources volition be very important and ultimately complementary endeavors in an age when the intrinsic value of natural resource is climbing."
Pay off your entire debt load
…or at least equally much as possible, by 2030. At minimum, pay off your mortgage and whatsoever motorcar loans by 2030. Credit bill of fare collectors can exist nasty, only they cannot take your home. Student loans should be paid off if possible, simply failure here volition also not bring about homelessness. "Of grade, the best advice is to have everything paid off—this provides for the highest corporeality of bachelor cash in the issue of dramatic income reduction," notes A. Beaulieu. "No one can reclaim what you own outright. Protect your future by planning how you will exist debt free by 2030."
Exist ready to invest when information technology all comes crashing down
Doing the preceding three things volition provide the opportunity for peachy wealth creation. The stock market will crash in the low, which ways equity prices on great companies will be cheap. People with cash can motion in and create future fortunes by being ready to purchase. Those who volition use the depression to their advantage will as well be gear up to buy real manor, equally those values and their rental incomes will surely escalate in a postal service-depression economy.
"Terminal, if you lot're an entrepreneur or business owner, be ready to buy businesses in their entirety, because the aging demographic and the sour economy will produce incredible deals on entities that will somewhen once again be sound, cash-producing businesses," says B. Beaulieu. "Look for competitors who are running out of hope and cash—or seek out these attributes in entirely new ?elds—and you will ?nd that yous have created the basis for a business empire that may make yous and your offspring very wealthy in the 2040s and beyond."
"Most people will fright the coming Great Low and volition promise only to survive," concludes A. Beaulieu. "The steps outlined here volition turn the worst economic downturn in a century into the opportunity of a lifetime. Simply the preparation needs to begin at present."
About the Authors:
Brian Beaulieu is an economist, chief, and CEO with ITR® Economics. At ITR, Brian has been leading the charge in applied enquiry regarding business bicycle trend analysis and the utilization of that enquiry at a applied concern level. Brian consults with companies worldwide and has provided valuable insight to business organisation owners and executives for 27 years with the result existence increased profitability and greater awareness of business bicycle opportunities.
Alan Beaulieu is a principal and the president of ITR® Economics. Alan is also the senior economic advisor to a diverseness of U.S. and European trade associations. He is the keynote speaker at corporate and trade association meetings worldwide where he provides clear economics forecasts and proven profit-enhancing strategies to businesses across a wide spectrum of industries. Alan's cognition and expertise are in great need, every bit evidenced past his extremely decorated calendar that includes 120 speaking engagements a year.
Almost the Volume:
Prosperity in the Age of Decline: How to Atomic number 82 Your Business and Preserve Wealth Through the Coming Business Cycles (Wiley, 2014, ISBN: 978-1-118-80989-1, $30.00) is bachelor at bookstores nationwide, from major online booksellers, and direct from the publisher by calling 800-225-5945. In Canada, call 800-567-4797. For more than information, please visit the volume's folio on www.wiley.com.
Source: https://www.lifehealth.com/ready-great-depression-2030/
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